The Age of Strategic Uncertainty: Great-Power Rivalry and the Fragmentation of Global Politics

Subject:International Relations \ Political Science
Title:The Age of Strategic Uncertainty: Great-Power Rivalry and the Fragmentation of Global Politics
Author(s):Dr. Shivani Rai & Dr. Rohit Kumar
Published on:30th October 2026
Published by:Lyceum India
Name of the Journal:Lyceum India Journal of Social Sciences
ISSN/e-ISSN:3048-6513
Volume & Issue:Volume: 3, Issue: 12
Pages:97-112
Original DOI (if any):10.5281/zenodo.23759210
Repository DOI: 
Abstract:The contemporary international system is undergoing a profound transformation characterised by intensifying great-power rivalry, growing geopolitical uncertainty, and the fragmentation of global politics. The post-Cold War expectation of a relatively stable, rules-based international order has increasingly been challenged by strategic competition among major powers, particularly the United States and China, renewed tensions between Russia and Western countries, and persistent conflicts in the Middle East. These developments have exposed the limitations of existing multilateral institutions in addressing complex security challenges and reconciling competing national interests. This article examines the relationship between great-power competition, strategic uncertainty, and the declining effectiveness of international cooperation. Drawing on realist and liberal institutionalist perspectives, it analyses how shifting power configurations, security dilemmas, economic nationalism, technological competition, and the politicisation of global interdependence contribute to the fragmentation of the international order. It further explores the challenges faced by international institutions, the strategic autonomy pursued by regional powers such as India, and the evolving role of the Global South in an increasingly contested geopolitical environment. The article argues that contemporary global politics is not necessarily moving towards the complete collapse of international cooperation; rather, cooperation is becoming increasingly selective, conditional, and shaped by strategic interests. It concludes that managing strategic uncertainty requires strengthened multilateral institutions, credible diplomatic engagement, crisis-management mechanisms, and renewed commitment to cooperation on shared global challenges. Ultimately, the future stability of the international system will depend not on the elimination of great-power competition, but on the ability of states to manage rivalry without undermining the foundations of international order.
Keywords:Strategic Uncertainty, Great-Power Rivalry, Geopolitical Fragmentation, International Cooperation, Multipolarity, Strategic Autonomy
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